NFL 2026 Wild Card Weekend: Jacksonville Jaguars Poised to Pounce on Playoff Opportunity
If you went into a coma at the start of this NFL season and woke up today, took a quick peek at the playoff schedule, and were astonished by the Jaguars being in the playoffs, you wouldn’t be the only one who is surprised. The Jags? The team that was 4-13 last season and fired their head coach? The team led by the guy who did that cringey “Duuuuval?” They’re in the playoffs? Even here at FFN, the Jaguars were ranked as the 22nd-best team in the NFL before the 2025-26 season began.
What makes their playoff appearance even more surprising is how they secured their spot. After a brutal loss to the Houston Texans in Week 10, where the Jaguars blew a 19-point lead in the fourth quarter, the Jaguars flipped a switch. They won their next eight games in a row and secured the AFC South crown, with notable dominant wins over the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos in that stretch. Those wins came even though the 2nd pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, Travis Hunter, was ruled out for the season after a knee injury suffered in Week 8. With questions looming about whether he could be an elite NFL QB, Trevor Lawrence stepped up to the plate and delivered. The defense that had been wishy-washy in years past allowed the fewest total rushing yards of any NFL team.
With the Jaguars set to play the Buffalo Bills, many still discount them, thinking this is the year Josh Allen can finally win it all. Lawrence and company, however, will certainly have something to say about that. Here’s what to watch for when the Jaguars seek to spoil Allen’s Super Bowl dreams in Jacksonville on Sunday.
Coen’s Keys to the Game:
Can the Run Game Get Going?
Despite the team’s success, the run game has not fully developed in Jacksonville this season. RBs Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten have split carries, and Trevor Lawrence has run plenty, but the Jaguars still sit at 20th in total rushing yards this season. The Bills’ pass defense has been better than their abysmal run defense, which is the fifth-worst in rushing yards allowed per game and tied for last in total rushing TDs allowed. If the Jaguars want to score the ball, they’ll have to win the battle in the trenches and blow through the Bills’ defensive front.
Get Jakobi Meyers the Ball
The Jaguars won eight straight soon after they traded for Jakobi Meyers. That’s no coincidence. Even if he doesn’t have a big day, Meyers provides the consistent receiving threat that the Jaguars need. The Bills are likely to focus on shutting him down in pass coverage, so how many touches he gets will be worth watching.
Can the Defense Come Through?
For all his talent, it’s no secret that Josh Allen doesn’t have an elite receiving core. With limited pass-catching talent available, pressure off the edge may force Allen to cave against a Jags defense with the second-most turnovers in the NFL this season. A healthy dose of blitzes should be in store for Jacksonville.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars’ phenomenal rush defense will face a Bills offense that had the highest rushing yards per game. If the Jaguars’ run defense holds, Allen will be forced to carry the offense.
Jaguars Can Break the Bills, 21-17
I don’t expect this game to be a blowout, but it certainly won’t be an easy fight for the Jaguars against the reigning MVP. It’ll be down to the wire, but I think that the Jaguars defense will be too much for the Bills’ offense in the end. I predict a 21-17 victory for the Jags, keeping them rolling into the divisional round.