Broncos vs. Bills | Divisional Round Preview, Key Matchups & Prediction
The Denver Broncos’ 2024-25 season ended with a 31-7 beatdown at the hands of the Buffalo Bills. Bo Nix opened this game with a 43-yard bomb to Troy Franklin for the first score. Unfortunately, the Bills responded with 31 unanswered points, embarrassing the Broncos in their first playoff game since their Super Bowl-winning season in 2015.
This year, the No. 1 seed Broncos will host the Bills in a divisional round matchup for a spot in the AFC Championship game. On paper, this is an excellent situation for the Broncos. The Bills are beat up and have to travel across the country on a short week. Denver’s team is nearly at full strength, plus the coaching staff had a surplus of time to prepare thanks to the bye week earned by attaining the No. 1 seed.
There are no excuses for Denver. Can this team ascend to its full potential and continue its dream season, or will the NFL’s reigning MVP take the Bills to another playoff road win?
Key Matchups
Broncos’ Ground Game vs. Bills’ Run Defense
Buffalo’s defense is near the bottom of the league, allowing 0.09 EPA per rush. This is ideal for Denver, which will likely aim to sustain long drives, stay ahead of the chains, and control the clock. The less time the ball is in the hands of Josh Allen and James Cook, the better the outcome for the Broncos. Denver’s offensive line should be able to open up some big lanes for RJ Harvey and Jaleel McLaughlin, who average 3.7 and 5.1 yards per carry, respectively.
The game-breaker in this matchup is Broncos quarterback Bo Nix. He has a slippery, elusive quality in scramble situations that makes him prone to break away for huge chunks of yardage on the ground. He averages nearly 21 rushing yards per game, which is in the top 10 for quarterbacks this season (per Stat Muse). That is with limited designed quarterback runs, but I expect Sean Payton to pull out all the stops this Saturday and utilize Bo’s legs with 2-5 designed carries.
Josh Allen & James Cook vs. Broncos Defense
The Broncos’ defense leads the league in success percentage at 36.48% (per Sumer Sports). They will have a head-on clash with the Bills’ offense, which ranks second in the league at 47.69%.
It’s best on best, but with Buffalo missing more than half of its receiving corps due to injury, I expect Buffalo to rely solely on Josh Allen and James Cook to carry the load on the ground. Cook is this season’s rushing leader, averaging over 5 yards per carry. Thankfully for Broncos Country, Denver’s run defense ranks second in the NFL, allowing an average of just 91.1 yards per game (per Team Rankings).
Similar to the Broncos’ potential offensive game plan, I believe the X-Factor in this matchup is the legs of Josh Allen. Allen leads all quarterbacks with 579 rushing yards, of which a majority are a result of scrambling. While Denver leads the league in sacks, they must stay disciplined in their rush lanes and limit Allen’s opportunities to escape the pocket and extend plays.
Prediction
Once again, it seems no one in the national media expects Denver to win. The Broncos even opened as home underdogs on the Vegas sportsbooks. The last time a No. 1 seed opened as underdogs in the divisional round was back in 2018 when Nick Foles and the Eagles defeated the Atlanta Falcons in a tight 15-10 home win. The doubt the Eagles faced then is similar to what the Broncos face now.
The NFL is circular, and I see history repeating itself on Saturday afternoon. The Broncos will not only win, but dominate. As good as Josh Allen and James Cook are, I don’t think it is enough to overcome their lack of depth, especially against a defense as good as Denver’s.
The score may be close due to the limited number of possessions each team has, but I think the Broncos pull away late to win convincingly and put a bow on this.
My final score:
Broncos 31, Bills 16
And for all you gamblers out there, I have Bo Nix for the first and an anytime touchdown.
God Bless America, God Bless our Troops, and God Bless Bo Nix!
I’ll see you on the other side, Broncos Country (Yes, you too, Hailee)!