The Art of The Giants’ Opening Script… And the Falloff Afterwards
Interestingly enough, since Jaxson Dart became the starter in Week 4, the Giants are averaging 6 yards per play on their opening drives, a number which has a -1 yard 3 & out against Philadelphia baked into it. They are also top 5 in opening-drive scoring according to Statmuse. They’ve now held leads in 6-of-9 games, and have a 2-7 record to show for it.
I wrote earlier this week that Brian Daboll’s time as the Giants’ head coach is most likely coming to an end sooner rather than later, and I believe a major reason for that has been his lack of in-game adjustments.
Now, let’s get something straight: Brian Daboll has forgotten more about football than I will ever know, but that’s why he gets paid millions. When you blow a 19-point lead and give up 33 points in the fourth quarter, though, it’s clear that you got out-coached. And when you routinely get a lead and can’t keep it, it’s fair for fans to question if you’re the right guy for the job.
Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka’s opening script and opening drives have been borderline elite. However, every positive number comes with a negative caveat. Yes, they’re top 5 in opening drive scoring, but out of the top 10 in the league, they rank second lowest in overall points per game, only ahead of the Browns. On opening drives, they’re averaging 6.06 yards per play, and if you extend it to the typical “opening script” (first 20 plays), that average is 5.93 yards per play. Both of those numbers would rank in the top 3 in the league, behind only the Colts and Bills. However, when you look at the rest of the game, the average drops to 3.98 yards and 4.15 yards, respectively. Those may not seem like huge drop-offs, but this is the NFL, margins are razor-thin, and we play with a weird, oval-shaped ball (it would also place either last or second-to-last overall).
My point in this exercise is to say that while it may be Brian Daboll’s head on the guillotine, it’s not for a lack of trying, which is more than Giants fans have been able to say in the post-Tom Coughlin era. I haven’t even mentioned the fact that Daboll is currently working without two of his top offensive weapons, and he’s also still breaking in a rookie QB (albeit a pretty good one). I’d also like to point out that while there has been some buzz surrounding the Giants elevating Kafka if they were to move on from Brian Daboll, I’d warn that he’s as responsible for the inability to adjust in-game offensively, if not more, as the offensive playcaller.
I’m a believer in what needs to be done two weeks from now should be done today, so if they’re planning to fire Daboll, I’d rather it be sooner rather than later, so we can see if Kafka can find a way to sustain the success of the opening game plan, and if he can help galvanize a defense that has the possible DPOY in Brian Burns and DROY in Abdul Carter on it to finish the year strong and inspire some hope for the future.