Falcons vs. Buccaneers Week 1 NFL Preview: Keys and Predictions
It’s always amazing to start the season with a week one win, but it’s even sweeter when a division rival comes to town and you can get a head start in what looks to be a tight division race. That’s what the Atlanta Falcons will be chasing on Sunday afternoon when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers roll into Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Falcons swept the Bucs in 2024, behind two outstanding performances from Kirk Cousins. Can Michael Penix Jr. continue that momentum and get the Falcons off to a fast start for 2025?
Keys to the Game
The rookies are ready to help the passing defense right away.
Atlanta did a lot of work this offseason to improve a passing defense that was 23rd in the NFL last year, including drafting defensive players with their first four picks in April’s draft, including taking two first-round edge-rushers in Jalon Walker and James Pierce Jr. With a defensive-minded coach in Raheem Morris and his attacking scheme that utilizes a lot of 3-man fronts and a ton of simulated pressures, both should fit in nicely, but it may take time.
They’re also facing a tough challenge for the first regular-season game in Tampa’s offensive line, anchored by all-pro Tristan Wirfs. However, if Pierce and Walker can speed up Baker Mayfield at all on Sunday, he may end up giving the backend a chance to make plays, like he did in the second matchup of 2024, when he threw three interceptions. However, it’s worth noting that if they can’t, the Buccaneers have a great offensive mind calling plays and their own first-round pick, Emeka Egbuka, who will be looking to make an early impact.
Michael Penix Jr. is ready to be the guy.
When the Falcons drafted Penix, it was the story of the first round in 2024, and a lot of people, including myself, couldn’t believe it. However, as time has passed, I can see the vision more clearly. Penix has what it takes to be a strong starter in the NFL. He may never end up being in the top five of anyone’s list, but he can definitely lead a capable offense, which he showed at Washington. If he can build on the promise he showed in three pretty strong (but flawed) starts at the end of last year, where he earned an 87.9 PFF grade, the Falcons have weapons that he can utilize in a downfield attack, including star running back Bijan Robinson and tight end Kyle Pitts, to take advantage of a weaker linebacker core for Tampa Bay.
Prediction
The Buccaneers have won the NFC South four seasons in a row, after the Saints won it four seasons in a row from 2017 to 2020. It’s time for a new regime in the division, and it’s the Falcons' time. I don’t think Penix is going to have a Patrick Mahomes-type leap in his first season as the starter, but I do believe he can lead a top 10 offense.
This game will be full of fireworks, as I don’t think the defense will be completely ready by week one, but Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Bijan, and Kyle Pitts give the Falcons enough juice to outscore the Buccaneers and start the season off right with a win.
Falcons 38, Buccaneers 31