The NFL MVP Race: Leaders and Long Shots
The NFL MVP is the most debated and distinguished award in American sports. The NFL honors itself receives more viewers each year than even the ESPYs, and its landmark award takes center stage ahead of the event. MVP conversations begin as early as September, and throughout the months, a few candidates have solidified themselves as the betting favorites to claim the title. Still, some guys are lurking in the shadows who have a chance to make a run for the award as the regular season draws to a close.
The Favorite: Drake Maye (-120)
Drake Maye, a 2nd-year quarterback who was +5000 to win the award before the season, now has more than a 50% chance to win MVP, according to Rotowire. Who could have predicted this meteoric rise, a sophomore standout year instead of a slump from the former North Carolina quarterback?
It’s incredible how much a good offseason can change. From 170 pass yards per game as a rookie to leading the league in yards in 2025, Maye has shown unbelievable improvement and has helped the Patriots to the best record in the NFL. His efficiency has been incredible, leading the league in both completion percentage and passer rating, just ahead of the other main contender for this award…
The Challenger: Matthew Stafford (+130)
Stafford held the title of MVP favorite for a couple of weeks before Maye swiped it just this week. The switch came after a two-interception performance broke Stafford’s record-setting streak of 28 touchdowns without an interception. Even though the streak is over, Stafford still arguably has better statistics than Maye. His 32 passing touchdowns pace the league, while his 111.7 passer rating is just 0.2 behind his rival’s.
The argument against Stafford, however, is that he benefits from maybe the best receiving duo in the NFL: Puka Nacua and Davonte Adams. His strong supporting cast might work against him in the MVP vote, as voters could favor Maye, who did a little bit less with a lot less help.
The Dark Horses: Dak Prescott (+1600) and Patrick Mahomes (+10000)
Dak Prescott has a better case for MVP than most people are giving him credit for. The Cowboys are 6-5-1, firmly in the fight for a wild-card spot. Prescott leads the league in QBR, pass yards per game, and is second in attempts. While he also has a top-tier receiving duo that has aided his stat lines, his defense has been awful, and his outstanding performances have sparked a postseason push. If the Cowboys make the playoffs, he has a great case to win the award.
The same goes for Patrick Mahomes. If the Chiefs make the playoffs from their current standing (6-6, 10th in the AFC), it will be by the willpower and on the back of Mahomes. His stats mirror Prescott’s across the board, and his receivers are much less impressive. While he isn’t even in the MVP conversation at the moment, don’t be surprised if he slips in when the Chiefs attempt to run the table.