Baker Mayfield (TB) vs the Atlanta Falcons
Last year’s fantasy QB3, Mayfield, has a very favorable matchup vs the Falcons. Atlanta allowed the sixth most points to quarterbacks last year overall, and Baker had 23 and 24 points in his two matchups against them.
Bo Nix (DEN) vs the Tennessee Titans
Nix finished last year very strong and can pick up right where he left off against the below-average Tennessee defense. They were middle of the road against quarterbacks in 2024, but expect mistakes by Cam Ward against the stout Denver D to lead to plenty of scoring for the Broncos.
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) vs the Carolina Panthers
The Panthers were about as bad as it gets at stopping the pass last year, allowing nearly 21 points per game to quarterbacks. The Jags offense is ready to unleash the new duo of Hunter and Thomas Jr., so expect fireworks from their quarterback.
C.J. Stroud (HOU) vs the Los Angeles Rams
Stroud fell out of fantasy relevance as last season progressed, and will be forced to air it out against LA with Joe Mixon sidelined. The Texans' offense also has exciting new weapons in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. Stroud should put up startable numbers in week one.
Bryce Young (CAR) vs the Jacksonville Jaguars
A bit of a sleeper here, and a guy who is available in most leagues. Bryce Young finished last season with a fantasy QB1 performance, and now faces the second-worst defense against quarterbacks. I believe this game will turn into a fantasy-friendly shootout and reward all Bryce believers.
Joe Flacco (CLE) vs the Cincinnati Bengals
“Joe Flacco? Are you out of your mind?” I can hear the comments already. Stay with me here. Flacco showed he can still produce yards and touchdowns last season, and now gets maybe the friendliest matchup in the league. The Bengals' secondary looks rough, and with Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku at his fingertips, I think Flacco will put up numbers in week one.
Sit 'Em
Brock Purdy (SF) vs the Seattle Seahawks
While I like Purdy in fantasy this year, I don’t think his situation is great heading into week one. First of all, he is missing many weapons, with Aiyuk out and Jennings still begging for a contract. In addition, Seattle boasts one of the best secondaries in the league. Woolen and Witherspoon are overkill to cover Ricky Pearsall and MVS.
Justin Herbert (LAC) vs the Kansas City Chiefs
Frankly, I’m scared of week one Andy Reid. As a longtime Patriots fan, I remember when the Chiefs hung 42 on us right after we won Super Bowl 51. The Chief defense was stout last season, and I don’t see Herbert having much success against it.
Justin Fields (NYJ) vs the Pittsburgh Steelers
Two teams that practically swapped quarterbacks are going at it in week one. Storylines will surround this game, but it likely won’t produce great QB play. The Steelers know Fields isn’t the best in the pocket, and I can’t imagine him feeling comfortable with Heyward, Watt, and Highsmith chasing after him. It's going to be a rough start to his year against Pittsburgh.
Jared Goff (DET) vs the Green Bay Packers
There ought to be adjustment pains for the Lions' offense in their first game without Ben Johnson calling the plays, and it is against one of the most formidable opponents in the league. Fresh off acquiring Micah Parsons, the Packers boasted the third-best defense against Quarterbacks last year. Not quite a recipe for a good Goff performance.
J.J. McCarthy (MIN) vs the Chicago Bears
J.J. McCarthy still hasn’t played an NFL regular-season game. His first start is against one of the best defenses in the league. The Vikings are missing Jordan Addison, and who knows what Adam Thielin has left in the tank. I think McCarthy could develop into a fantasy starter in the Kevin O’Connell system this season, but not in week one.
By Logan Lazarczyk
Start 'Em
Omarion Hampton (LAC) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
It is uncertain how much of a workload Hampton will receive with Najee Harris back. However, Harris has had little practice time since being signed in free agency. Even if Harris takes 10 opportunities from the rookie running back, Hampton should still see plenty of work on the ground and a handful of targets in the passing game.
Treveyon Henderson (NE) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Henderson is likely to split backfield work with Romandre Stevenson. He should still earn plenty of attempts in what could be a heavy run scheme in Week 1. The Raiders are an underwhelming defense with little resistance in the interior of the defensive line. Henderson's electrifying speed and agility could lead to several gash plays in both the rushing and receiving game.
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Hubbard rushed for 11 touchdowns in 15 games in 2024. With Jonathan Brooks out for the season, the Panthers' backfield belongs to Hubbard. Dowdle could steal a few touches, but Hubbard will be the focal point of this rushing attack. The Jaguars gave up the second-most points to running backs last season.
James Conner (ARI) vs. New Orleans Saints
Health has always been an issue for Conner, but when he is on the field, he is a dominant force in fantasy. The Saints gave up the fourth-most touchdowns to running backs in 2024, and that trend is expected to continue this season. You can bake in a touchdown for Conner in this one, and with the Cardinals seemingly playing with a comfortable lead, expect Arizona to lean on Conner and Trey Benson to bleed the clock out in the second half.
Aaron Jones (MIN) vs. Chicago Bears
J.J. McCarthy is set to make his first career start on Monday Night Football at Soldier Field. Because of that, the Vikings will focus on Jones and the rushing attack to make life easier for the second-year quarterback. Jones is always capable of breaking a long run, and his receiving capabilities should give him a safe, high floor in Week 1.
Sit 'Em
James Cook (BUF) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Coming off a fresh contract extension, Cook gets to face a premier run defense in the season opener. In 2024, the Ravens allowed a league-best 3.6 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Unless Cook can score near the goal line - which is unlikely with Josh Allen - he will have a subpar performance against Baltimore.
Javonte Williams (DAL) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Injuries have derailed Williams' career, and it has shown in his on-field performance, averaging less than four yards per carry over the last two seasons. In addition, the Eagles were one of the best run defenses in the league last season, and that will not change with Jalen Carter anchoring the defensive line. It's a nightmare matchup for Williams, who will also be splitting carries with Miles Sanders and Jaydon Blue.
D'Andre Swift (CHI) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Swift will lead the Bears' backfield to open the season, but his first matchup is daunting against a Vikings' defense that allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards to running backs in 2024. In addition, Swift was not an efficient runner last season, averaging 3.8 yards per carry. Although he will see a large volume of opportunities, they will go to waste against Minnesota's strong front seven.
Najee Harris (LAC) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Although Harris has been cleared to play on Friday against the Chiefs, his lack of time with the team will limit his role in the season opener. Not to mention, Harris will most likely lose out on passing work to Hampton, who is a more explosive and fluid athlete. A touchdown is the only way Harris is relevant in Week 1 for fantasy managers, but don't bet on it.
Tony Pollard (TEN) vs. Denver Broncos
With Tyjae Spears on the IR, Pollard is going to have a significant workload for the foreseeable future. Volume may keep in the RB1 range for the first quarter of the season, but I'm not sure that will be enough against a Broncos defense that allowed the third-fewest rushing yards to running backs in 2024. The 28-year-old running back will have an opportunity to produce with no competition, but it's a frightening proposition against a defense that added Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga to the mix.
By Logan Lazarczyk
Start 'Em
Emeka Egbuka (TB) vs. Atlanta Falcons
With Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan out indefinitely, and Cade Otton potentially out Week 1, there will be ample opportunities for targets. In a potential shootout against the Falcons, the Ohio State product is a legitimate top 20 WR in Week 1. With Mike Evans and Bucky Iriving as the only competition, Egbuka could easily command 6+ targets.
George Pickens (DAL) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Dak Prescott will be throwing often, as the Cowboys will presumably be playing catch-up against the Eagles. In general, Pickens will benefit from a change of scenery. With CeeDee Lamb occupying the majority of attention, Pickens is in line for a healthy target share and a good bet for a touchdown in a pass-heavy game script.
Xavier Worthy (KC) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Entering his second year, Worthy is primed to take advantage of Rashee Rice’s absence from the lineup (suspension). With an improved offensive line, Patrick Mahomes should have more time to push the ball down the field, which benefits Worthy and his elite speed.
Ricky Pearsall (SF) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Injuries have marred the 49ers’ wide receiver room, and the last man standing is Pearsall, who will be the clear WR1 for Brock Purdy in Week 1. The second-year wideout will be peppered with targets, and that is exactly what you want to see with receivers, especially in PPR formats. Pearsall is a safe WR2 option who could creep into a top 15 finish in the opening week.
Courtland Sutton (DEN) vs. Tennessee Titans
If there were one area of weakness for the Broncos, it would be their wide receiver room. Sutton is the clear-cut WR1 for Denver, and he should dominate the target share in this offense. The only concern for the 29-year-old wideout in this game is the potential for this game to get out of hand early and Denver running out the clock in the second half. Nonetheless, fire up Sutton in your lineups in Week 1.
Sit 'Em
DK Metcalf (PIT) vs. New York Jets
Aaron Rodgers and Metcalf’s connection will be tested right away against the Jets. Sauce Gardner will be the primary cornerback on Metcalf, and with no other real threat on the outside, look for the Jets to send additional coverage Metcalf’s way. The Jets’ defense ranked inside the top 10 in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns allowed to wide receivers in 2024.
Garrett Wilson (NY) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Seeing a healthy target share will be a consistent feature of Wilson’s 2025 season, but how many of those targets will be catchable with Justin Fields throwing the ball? The Steelers have been built around their defense in recent memory, and the secondary could create a lot of issues for Wilson in this contest.
Calvin Ridley (TEN) vs. Denver Broncos
In terms of season-long evaluation, Ridley could be one of the best values in 2025, but don’t expect to see that type of success against the Broncos. Ridley is the Titans’ WR1 by a large margin, but because of that, he will see a heavy dose of Patrick Surtain II. Cam Ward could also struggle mightily in his first career start in a hostile environment.
Keon Coleman (BUF) vs. Baltimore Ravens
This could be a breakout season for Coleman, but his matchup against the Ravens is daunting, as Baltimore allowed the third-fewest points to wideouts in 2024. Coleman is big-play dependent, and if he does not connect on a deep touchdown, his lack of volume will be exposed.
Jaylen Waddle (MIA) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Drafting and starting Waddle has been one of the riskiest propositions the last two seasons. 2024 was an up-and-down season for the Dolphins, and Waddle was heavily impacted by the injury to Tua Tagovailoa, finishing 10 or fewer fantasy points in 12 games. Those risk factors with the quarterback and production volatility remain, making it a wait-and-see game for Waddle.
By Dominic Orrico
Start 'Em
David Njoku (CLE) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
After having a down year last year that was riddled by injury, Njoku looks to be one of the premier targets in this offense. Joe Flacco will be starting, and the last time this happened back in 2023, Njoku was the TE2 in that five-game span. Start him with confidence and touchdown upside against a Bengals team that allowed the 13th most points to tight ends in 2024.
Tyler Warren (IND) vs. Miami Dolphins
Starting a rookie in general is a risk for most, and starting a rookie tight end sounds absurd. Well, not for Warren, who had a stellar preseason and was drafted in the first round. Miami gave up 7.3 fantasy points to tight ends last year, but expect Warren to get a ton of check-down and short pass targets from Daniel Jones, who won’t be lobbing the ball down the field.
Dallas Goedert (PHI) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Goedert had a down year last season, playing only 10 games, but when healthy, he produces at a top-10 tight end, averaging about 6.5 points. The Cowboys allowed over 1,400 yards to tight ends in 2023 and 2024. It’s safe to start Goedert in Week 1, given his big-play ability and red-zone threat.
Evan Engram (DEN) vs. Tennessee Titans
Despite the Titans being historically tough on tight ends, Sean Payton has shown that he loves to get his tight ends in the passing game. After acquiring Engram this offseason, he is expected to receive plenty of work, having averaged 10.3 points last year in a dysfunctional Jacksonville and 13.6 points in 2023. Start him against a Titans team where he’s going to get plenty of targets.
Tucker Kraft (GB) vs. Detroit Lions
You probably grabbed Kraft late, not being able to catch one of the premier tight ends, but he could really be a star in this offense. Detroit is not great against the tight end position, giving up an average of 46.7 yards, and the combination of injuries to this Packers receiver room makes Kraft a very startable TE1 with red zone threat upside.
Sit 'Em
Dalton Kincaid (BUF) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Kincaid had a slump last year, averaging 7.8 and only two touchdowns. There are way too many targets in this offense, and his 18.1% target share volume from last year won’t be there. Until he can prove he is still the primary target and can get past the top-tier defense in Baltimore
Kyle Pitts (ATL) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I know it’s tempting, as the Buccaneers had a bottom-tier defense last year, especially against the tight end, but I can’t trust Kyle Pitts until he can provide consistent production in this offense like he did in his rookie year. Sit him and watch to see if there is a more substantial target share for him early on, and we can talk about starting him in the future.
Colston Loveland (CHI) vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Bears drafted the Michigan phenom 10th overall this draft, leaving many to believe he will start. Still, Cole Kmet had a stellar 2023 season with 10.7 PPG and could take the reins in the meantime.
Darren Waller (MIA) vs. Indianapolis Colts
The name appeal of Waller sounds nice to start, especially in deeper leagues, but stay cautious, even though the Colts allowed the 5th most fantasy points to tight ends last year. There are too many mouths to feed in this offense, and Waller is past his prime, far from his days with the Raiders.
Jake Ferguson (DAL) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
I’m sure he could be your starting tight end, and you don’t have a choice but to start him. However, I don’t like the matchup against this strong Eagles defense, which hasn’t allowed more than an average of 175 passing yards to teams, let alone being strong against tight ends.
By Alex Percey
Start 'Em
Cam Little (JAX) vs the Carolina Panthers
We just saw Cam Little kick the longest field goal in NFL (preseason) history mere weeks ago. He should be starting in every league for the upside alone: imagine getting seven fantasy points from one kick! Even better, he plays the atrocious Carolina defense.
Will Reichard (MIN) vs the Chicago Bears
Reichard is my sleeper to be a top-10 kicker this year. He scored 11+ points in eight of his twelve games last season, and 15 last time he faced Chicago. The Bears also allowed the fifth-most points to kickers last season.
Chris Boswell (PIT) vs the New York Jets
For some odd reason, Boswell is ranked as the 15th-best starting option by ESPN this week. If that seems low for the reigning #1 fantasy kicker, that's because it is. In addition, the Steelers face the Jets, who allowed the second-most points to kickers last year. Unless I’m missing something, there's no reason that Boswell shouldn’t be a set-and-forget kicker.
Sit 'Em
Tyler Loop (BAL) vs the Buffalo Bills
A rookie kicker against the defense that allowed the fewest points to kickers in 2024. Enough said.
Jake Bates (DET) vs the Green Bay Packers
There’s a lot of hype around Bates this season. Yes, he had many memorable kicks last season and has a great background story. However, I don’t think he should be regarded as an elite fantasy option after being 10th in points per game and still playing for Dan Campbell, who goes for it on fourth down more than anyone.
Cairo Santos (CHI) vs the Minnesota Vikings
Santos was nothing but disappointing last season. He only scored double-digit points three times, and is facing the third-best team against kickers from 2022. There are so many better options than the aging vet.
