Drake Maye Should Have Been the NFL MVP

Written By Alex Percey

Over the last 15 years, as the MVP has truly and rightfully become a QB award, one stat has stood above all others as a strong predictor of who will receive it. As Kevin Cole stated in his post on X, the player with the best EPA per play in 12 of the last 15 seasons has won the award, and rightfully so. While there is no perfect stat to summarize quarterback value, EPA does a great job of accounting for the points added over expected by the offense, most of which is driven by and attributed to the quarterback.

Last year, most baseline statistics favored Lamar Jackson to win the award. However, those who looked at the context of the season, supporting cast, and advanced stats such as EPA saw a different story; one that revealed that Josh Allen had a slim edge. When Allen won the award, I was overjoyed. The MVP voters had a tough decision at hand and made the right choice. It gave me hope for their capabilities going forward.


This year’s race was very similar, with Stafford having more passing yards and touchdowns, while Maye led the league in EPA per play and total EPA (SumerSports). In contrast to last year’s race, though, Maye also led the league in nearly every efficiency metric, which I believed should have made it a more lopsided vote than last year. Unfortunately, I was wrong.


For those who are confused and still consider yards and touchdowns as the baseline for an MVP case, let me provide an analogy. In the MLB, before the Sabermetrics and analytics revolution, Home Runs and RBIs were the most discussed hitting stats in the league. Whoever led in those two stats was considered the most valuable and best player in the league. As analysts began studying which metrics best correlated with winning and developing new statistics, that perception changed. The community realized that statistics like OPS, WRC+, and WAR were much better determinants of value, and for the last decade, those stats have driven MVP voting.

This was the MVP race in the most recent MVP season. As you can see, Cal Raleigh had a great year, leading the MLB in home runs and RBIs. 30 years ago, he probably would have won MVP, but not today, when we have a better understanding of the game. We now know that those efficiency metrics (OBP and Slugging) and value metrics (WPA and RE24) are more important in player evaluation, making Judge the clear choice.


I now present to you the statistical comparison between Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye. Like Raliegh, Stafford is better in the counting stats categories, but not in efficiency metrics or AV, which is ProFootballReference’s value metric.

To me, the decision was clear. Even after adjusting for defensive quality faced and considering common opponents, Maye had the statistical advantage. Drake Maye did more with less this year, propelling his team to a division title and 10-game turnaround. The good news for Drake Maye lovers is that he could have 15 or more chances in his career to rightfully claim the title of the NFL’s most valuable player.

Alex Percey
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