Time to Panic?: Miami Dolphins’ Early Struggles May Be Misleading

The Dolphins are 0-2 through two weeks, and it doesn’t take much in-depth analysis to understand that they played two bad games. However, the numbers say that the Dolphins were able to figure out a few things against the New England Patriots in Week 2. 

Let’s start with the Dolphins' offense. After being outscored 20-0 in the first half by the Colts in Week 1 and 12-0 in the first quarter against the Patriots in Week 2, they have not had a chance to establish the run game early.

This has limited the amount of rushing attempts for De’von Achane and company, but per Pro Football Reference, the Dolphins rank 7th in the NFL in rush yards after contact. The Buffalo Bills await the Dolphins in Week 3, so we might have to wait another week to see Miami not play from behind, but there is reason for optimism with the run game. 

Now that the optimism is out of the way, let’s get into the defensive side of the ball.

It is no secret that the Dolphins' defense has been bad. They gave up 33 points in each of the first two weeks of the season. Their biggest issue is their 21st-ranked pressure rate on opposing quarterbacks, per PFR. 

While this is only slightly below average, the Dolphins have the third-highest blitz percentage per drop-back in the entire NFL. When you’re blitzing more than just about any other team, being in the bottom half of the league in pressure rate is not a recipe for success.

The Dolphins are also dead last in expected points, which was contributed to by passing defense. The 16th-ranked Seattle Seahawks are at -8.65 points. The 31st-ranked Chicago Bears are at -25.48 points, and Miami is at a whopping -32.46 expected points contributed by the passing defense. If it’s any consolation, the Phins' rushing defense ranks 14th in points contributed by the rushing defense according to PFR.

I expect the Dolphins’ defense to regress to the mean a little bit. There’s way too much talent on that side of the ball for them to be this bad. But the advanced stats say there is not much to be optimistic about with this group.

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