Season Preview: Dark Horse or Bust? 2 Reasons the Dolphins Can Sneak Into the Playoffs, 2 Reasons They Can’t
After making some offseason moves to build on a disappointing 8-9 season that never quite recovered from a 2-6 start, the Dolphins have positioned themselves as a dark horse playoff contender heading into the 2025 season. With a strength of schedule that ranks as the 11th easiest in the league, per Pro Football Focus, the Dolphins have the potential to make some noise in the wild-card race.
Here are two reasons why the Dolphins could find themselves in the playoff hunt, and two reasons why they could come up short.
Why They Might Make the Playoffs
New Defensive Upgrades
The biggest move the Dolphins made this offseason was to trade defensive back Jalen Ramsey and tight end Jonnu Smith to the Steelers to bring safety Minkah Fitzpatrick back to Miami. While Ramsey will be missed, the Dolphins also added edge rusher Matthew Judon and linebacker Willie Gay in free agency.
Losing Jalen Ramsey hurts, but the addition of new faces on all three levels of the defense gives reason for optimism about this group.
New Weapons for Tua
One of the most surprising moves of the offseason was when the Dolphins traded for then-retired tight end Darren Waller from the Giants to replace Smith. Additionally, wide receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, who is fresh off a season where he had 15.5 yds/rec and nine touchdowns (both career highs) with the Titans, joins a wide receiver room headlined by Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
The Dolphins also fired Wide Receivers Coach Wes Welker and replaced him with then-Cowboys WR coach Robert Prince, who coached a passing offense that looked solid when QB Dak Prescott was healthy.
Why They Might Miss the Playoffs… Again
Injuries
This one speaks for itself. Injuries can break any team, but quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has a more extensive injury history than most, and backup QBs Zach Wilson and Quinn Ewers will not leave any Dolphins fans excited.
Running back Devon Achane has also been banged up, dealing with a calf issue. As of now, he is expected to be ready for Week 1, but soft tissue injuries like these tend to linger, which leaves question marks about how healthy he really is and whether the Dolphins may limit his workload.
A Competitive Conference
Realistically, the Dolphins are unlikely to compete with the Bills for an AFC East title. This means that they will be competing with teams like the Broncos, Chargers, Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals for one of three wild-card spots. Aside from the Bengals, these teams all finished better than the Dolphins last year.
While the Dolphins' new acquisitions provide hope that the team is better than it was last year, it remains to be seen if it is enough to achieve their goal of making a serious push to leapfrog two or more of those teams for a wild-card spot.
Realistic Goal
The playoffs are within reach for the Dolphins, and anything less than a road game on Wild Card Weekend would be a disappointment for Miami. A healthy Miami team should be able to compete for a playoff spot down the stretch and finish with 9-10 wins.