Kansas City Chiefs' Offensive Woes are Evident
No one will dispute the fact that the Chiefs’ offense has looked pedestrian through the first two weeks of the season. In fact, there is no way around it when assessing the advanced metrics, which present alarming information on the current state of the offense. Let’s take a look at some of these metrics and how they paint a clear picture of where Kansas City’s offense stands compared to the rest of the league.
To begin, let’s evaluate the Chiefs’ EPA values. EPA, which stands for expected points added, is a metric that measures how many points a team adds or subtracts on each play based on their expected points. In this metric, there are total EPA, EPA/rush, and EPA/pass.
Kansas City’s total EPA measures up with the rest of the league and is middle of the pack, ranking as the 14th-best offense with a 5.29. Certainly not where Andy Reid and his coaching staff strive for, but it shows that the Chiefs do have hope of producing efficient numbers when Rashee Rice returns from suspension.
Kansas City’s EPA/rush is a bit misleading because the running game, led by Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt, is one of the worst back tandems in the league. Despite that, the Chiefs own a .19 EPA/rush, which is second in the league behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This also shows how deadly Patrick Mahomes can be when he uses his legs when nothing is available through the air.
However, the EPA/pass statistic is a screaming red flag for how this offense is currently operating. Despite having Mahomes under center and Reid’s complex and effective play design, the Chiefs have a -.03 EPA per pass attempt, which ranks 20th in the league. That is where Rice and Xavier Worthy have been missed.
Next, let’s discuss how consistently Kansas City’s offense succeeds on a given play. It is straightforward to decipher this by evaluating the success percentage. According to Sumer Sports, the Chiefs possess a 43.48 success percentage, which is 17th among all offenses. Again, with Mahomes and Reid at the head of this offense, there are no excuses for this unit not finding more success. However, that points to how shaky the offensive line is at times and how undependable the rest of the supporting cast is around the 30-year-old quarterback at the moment.
Speaking of the offensive line, this final metric highlights how much the Chiefs depend on Mahomes to make a play on every single down. The metric that reflects this is the scrambling percentage. According to Sumer Sports, Mahomes is scrambling 15.29% of the time, which is the highest rate among all quarterbacks. Additionally, Mahomes' scrambling rate is three percentage points higher than that of the next quarterback, Justin Fields, and the Chiefs are in bad company with this statistic. The three neighboring teams that fall behind the Chiefs in this metric are the New York Jets (12.50%), Chicago Bears (11.90%), and Houston Texans (10.94%). Each of these either possesses a quarterback who is overly dependent on creating plays outside of the pocket/or has poor offensive line play. It’s bad company to be a part of for a team with as high standards as the Chiefs.
If Kansas City wants to compete for anything remotely close to a Lombardi Trophy this season, drastic changes have to be made, and it may not come until Rice returns from suspension in Week 7.