Bet the Chiefs to win the AFC West
Every year, pundits, podcast hosts, and the sports media as a whole state, ‘This is the year the Kansas City Chiefs will finally be dethroned in the AFC West.’ 2025 is no different, as this offseason has been filled with buzz surrounding the Chiefs’ divisional rivals.
Yes, it is fair to acknowledge that this season feels astronomically different when discussing the path Kansas City has to endure to win another division title. The Chiefs have won nine straight division titles and have not finished first since 2015, when Peyton Manning was the Denver Broncos quarterback.
As mentioned, this is the most well-rounded the AFC West has been in recent memory. First, it is the best-coached division in the entire NFL with Andy Reid, Jim Harbaugh, Sean Payton, and Pete Carroll as the head coaches for their respective teams.
Roster-wise, the Broncos have arguably the best defensive roster with the additions of Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufunga, who were both cornerstone players for the San Francisco 49ers. Bo Nix is entering his second season and is coming off an elite rookie campaign, leading the Broncos to the playoffs, while completing 66.3% of his passes for 3,775 yards, 34 total touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Another year in Payton’s system should provide another step in Nix’s development.
Meanwhile, the vibes have been sky high with the Los Angeles Chargers since Harbaugh’s arrival last season. After finishing with a 5-12 record in 2023, the Chargers went 11-6 last season and reached the playoffs. It was arguably an overachievement with a retooling roster. After another strong draft highlighted by running back Omarion Hampton, it appeared that Los Angeles was well-positioned to make a legitimate push for the division. However, Rashawn Slater suffered a season-ending torn patellar tendon in practice last week. Slater just signed a four-year, $113 million contract extension. Joe Alt will take over as the left tackle with Slater out. The Chargers have solid pieces around the roster, but it is not as talented as the other teams in this division. Justin Herbert is the second-best quarterback in this division, but will he be able to carry the team in a much more competitive AFC West?
Finally, the Las Vegas Raiders have been the laughing stock of the division for several years now. The Raiders may still finish in fourth, but this is arguably the best fourth-place team in the entire league. Las Vegas upgraded at head coach and quarterback with the additions of Carroll and Geno Smith, who was acquired from the Seattle Seahawks. On top of that, the Raiders drafted arguably the top player in the 2025 draft, running back Ashton Jeanty, to pair with tight end Brock Bowers. There are still question marks on defense outside of Maxx Crosby, but this will be a team no one wants to play late in the season with playoff positioning on the line.
With all that said, don’t overthink this one. Bet the Chiefs to win the AFC West. Currently on FanDuel, Kansas City is -110 to win the division, which is the best value you will ever get for the Chiefs while Patrick Mahomes is the quarterback. Kansas City has the best coach and quarterback in the division, which are the top two ingredients for success in the NFL. Not to mention, it already appears that Josh Simmons is a stable left tackle, at least. While the other teams have improved immensely, it remains to be seen if Nix can replicate his 2024 performance. The Chargers’ left tackle situation could be problematic, and, as much as everyone likes Carroll and Smith, there is a clear ceiling with both at the helm.
The Chiefs are still the Chiefs, and as long as Mahomes and Reid are there, don’t assume that their spot at the top of this division is at risk.