Chiefs-Chargers Week 1 Preview: Keys to the Game and Score Prediction
For the first time since 2018, when Patrick Mahomes took over as the starter, the Kansas City Chiefs will be facing a division opponent in their season opener. That year, the Chiefs also went on the road to battle the Chargers. However, this time around, the game will take place outside the country in Brazil.
A lot has changed since the last time these two faced off in Week 1, but they are familiar foes with high expectations in 2025.
That being said, here is how this contest could play out on Friday night, and insight into what could be deciding factors in a matchup between two AFC contenders.
Keys to the Game
The Chiefs’ offensive line’s ability to keep Patrick Mahomes upright
Multiple factors contributed to Kansas City’s struggles throughout last season and downfall in the Super Bowl, but the main culprit was the exterior of the offensive line.
Joe Thuney being forced to slide over from his natural left guard position to left tackle during the latter half of the 2024 season was a last resort solution to a monumental problem. Although Thuney was a solid placeholder during that time period, the shift weakened the interior of the offensive line, while exposing Thuney’s inexperience against the Eagles' elite pass rush.
For the first time in several years, it finally feels as if the Chiefs have their long-term left tackle in Josh Simmons. If Simmons proves that his preseason performances were no fluke, this offensive line should once again become a strength for Kansas City.
In terms of this game, the Chargers do not possess an overwhelming pass rush. With Joey Bosa now in Buffalo, Khalil Mack is the only edge rusher who provides any resemblance to an issue off the edge. That is an issue within itself for Los Angeles, as Mack is 34 years old and is coming off a season where he tallied six sacks in 16 games. Getting to the passer will definitely be a weakness for the Chargers in 2025, and if that is the case in this one, it’s going to be a long night against an elite quarterback.
When Patrick Mahomes is protected and provided enough time to deliver the football cleanly, the Chiefs are virtually unstoppable. Simmons and Kingsley Suamataia are the two players to watch for on Friday night. Their performances will be instrumental to how well the offensive line holds up.
Will Rashawn Slater’s absence be exploited?
Los Angeles suffered a gut punch this offseason when Slater suffered a season-ending torn patellar injury during practice in August.
The Chargers’ talent does not blow anyone away, but the offensive tackle tandem of Slater and Joe Alt was supposed to be a staple once again, but that will not be the case this season. After drafting Alt fifth overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, Jim Harbaugh made it clear that Los Angeles will be a physical football team, and Justin Herbert will be one of the best-protected quarterbacks in the league moving forward.
Alt will slide over to left tackle, which is an area of familiarity for the Notre Dame product, who started 13 games at that position in college. However, the right side of the line will now suffer Alt occupying Herbert’s blindside.
With that being the case, look for Steve Spagnuolo to attack the right side of Los Angeles’ offensive line by either sending an extra blitzer or lining up Chris Jones on Trey Pipkins, who will take over as the starting right tackle.
Despite having Slater and Alt along the offensive line in 2024, Herbert was sacked 40 times last season. That could become more of an issue for the Chargers, especially if the interior of the offensive line continues to struggle in 2025.
Chiefs’ offensive production without Rashee Rice
Rice’s inevitable suspension had been a storyline all offseason. Still, there continued to be ambiguity in the situation as the NFLPA and the league continued to negotiate a suspension that both sides felt was appropriate for the 25-year-old receiver. The two parties finally settled on a six-game suspension, which Rice will serve at the beginning of the season, rather than going through the disciplinary hearing in late September and facing a lengthy suspension through the middle portion of the season.
The Chiefs are used to not having Rice available, as he suffered a season-ending knee injury in 2024 against the Chargers. In the 15 games that Rice missed, including the playoffs, Kansas City went 13-2. The offense took a step back in production and effectiveness, but the fact that the Chiefs have experience without Rice in the lineup is a reason to believe Mahomes and the offense can survive the first six weeks of the season.
Unlike last season, the Chiefs have depth at the wide receiver position with Xavier Worthy, Marquise Brown, Juju Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton, and Jalen Royals available to step up in Rice’s absence. Royals is unlikely to play in Week 1 with knee tendinitis.
Not having Rice for an extended period of time is undoubtedly a cause for concern, but the Chiefs are well-equipped to be successful offensively and have pieces who can step up in key spots.
Prediction
Chiefs 27, Chargers 23