Should Texans stick with Stroud at QB?
On Sunday, Houston not only upset Jacksonville, but also overcame a 19-point deficit in the fourth quarter, scoring a total of FOUR unanswered touchdowns. Well, the last one was a defensive score off of a Trevor Lawrence blunder in a Hail Mary situation, but the scoreboard still lit up.
Quick Context: The Texans played Davis Mills at QB this week as CJ Stroud sat out with a concussion. Mills was drafted by Houston in 2021 out of Stanford and played in 28 games across his first 2 years. In 2023, Houston took CJ Stroud at #2 overall out of Ohio State, who lit the NFL on fire during his rookie year with an efficient statline: 4108 yds, 23 TDs, and only 5 INTs in 15 games.
As we head into Week 11, the Texans sit at 4-5, 3rd place in the division, now neck and neck with the Jags – only one game back, and having already split on the season, meaning the tiebreaker will not be head-to-head record. The Colts are an absolute WAGON, something would have to go disastrously wrong for them to fumble this lead on the AFC South. The Titans are potentially the worst team in the NFL and have essentially no shot at making the playoffs. Houston’s still got a shot at a Wild Card playoff appearance this season, but the question around their QB play looms.
Texans GM Nick Caserio has to navigate the upcoming offseason carefully: CJ Stroud was a first-round pick, meaning Houston can exercise his 5th-year option, but that only becomes available during the player’s 3rd offseason. Stroud has been criticized a lot recently – after his phenomenal rookie season, his play has dropped off a bit. Last season, in a full 17-game season, Stroud put up 3,727 yds and 20 TDs, with 12 INTs. Then, this season, through eight games, Stroud has accumulated 1,702 yds, 11 TDs, and 5 INTs. He hasn’t been unplayable – lots of the blame should be shifted to the offense as a whole. Injuries to weapons like Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell over the last two years, along with what sometimes looks like a JV team’s offensive line, just can’t bode well for a quarterback.
Caserio also has to make a call on Davis Mills, who came in and led the comeback on Sunday. He’s been with the team for 4.5 seasons and is currently on a 1-year deal as the backup. Mills has gotten playing time at some point in each of the last three seasons, but up until this season hasn’t looked great in the backup role. In 10 appearances across the ’23 and ’24 seasons, Mills only put up a total of 385 yards, 2 TDs, but a surprising 0 INTs. However, his counting stats this season look better: 452 yds, 2 TDs, and 1 INT across three games. His EPA/play is inefficient at -0.06, compared to Stroud’s +0.14, ranking #13 among all QBs this year.
My take: Stroud should stay as the starter, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Houston rolls the dice on him this year – as Stroud keeps rolling in his sophomore slump, it’s not out of the question to make him prove it over the rest of this season and next. Houston should make sure they aren’t settling for mediocrity with Stroud and thoroughly evaluate his game before deciding to give him a long-term deal. However, if Stroud looks better at the end of this year post-injury, I’d expect Houston to pick up the 5th-year option. Houston can’t stick with Mills after one game – in reality, only a quarter. It’s not a large enough sample size. But seeing him play well against the Jaguars was good. He’s at least earned himself a backup role somewhere after last Sunday, and Houston will likely make him an offer.
Let’s hope for the best for CJ Stroud and his ability to silence the crowd in the remaining eight games.